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Of all FAANGs I expect FB to be the first to sink. I see the writing on the wall..


Instagram and Whatsapp are keeping them alive.


If they play their cards right they could turn WhatsApp into the premier business to consumer contact platform. Not just messaging but also phone calls etc... That could massively reduce the spam calls.

Maybe you could opt in for political calls if they pay you..


Does Meta make serious money from Whatsapp?


Absolutely. FB is a house of cards at this point.


Why?


Their main product sucks and their Boomer user base is literally dying. The acquisitions are keeping them in the game, but Insta has intense competition from TikTok and Snap and YouTube. They don’t have an unsinkable critical product that everyone uses and will continue to use through good and bad times, like search or mail.


Snapchat is walking dead fwiw.

TikTok is strong, but realistically will be banned across the west next couple years b/c of security problems.

You might hate Instagram, and that's very understandable, but it's going to be fine.


Snapchat is still doing fine considering how much competition they have all over the place e.g. Instagram, TikTok, YouTube etc.

TikTok won't be banned because US will force it to relocate all their relevant servers to US and hand in US citizens' data to US agencies. And realistically speaking TikTok is no different than Microsoft, Google and Facebook; instead all data going to one superpower it flows to another and majority of this data is garbage that's inefficiently used to target you with personalized ads. Personal data is mostly garbage like I said but data about specific groups and overall population might be more valuable and important taking in consideration economic competition and arms race between US and China.


TikTok being banned would cause immense backlash with the public. Odds are higher it will get replaced before a ban takes place, and Insta isn't exactly stepping up.



Problem with snapchat is that no one older than 25 uses it. They've already saturated their user base and stuffed as many ads as they can into the app. There's not really anywhere for them to go and they're still losing money.


They refused Facebook's acquisition offer but I think their endgame is getting acquired by Google. Facebook offered $3bn but Google will have to offer much more, at least x5 more.


Shit maybe they should buy Harley Davidson.


Not the OP, and this is just speculation on my part so take it with a grain of salt.

Meta gets the overwhelming majority (97.7%) of their revenue from advertising[1]. Their business model is completely reliant on using user data to sell highly targeted ads to sellers. While most consumers don't actually care what corporations do with their data, governments have been starting to crack down on the types of data that can be collected, and what it can be used for, especially with GDPR in the EU. The less data Meta can collect, the worse their targeted advertising will be, and fewer sellers will be willing to pay - or pay as much - for ads on their platforms. As it is, many companies are moving more towards influencer sponsorship for advertising, cutting platforms like Instagram out of the cost entirely.

The problem is that all of Meta's eggs are in one basket, and that basket's bound to drop. Most other big tech companies have more diverse revenue sources, and so are more robust.

That being said, I disagree with the premise - Netflix is probably going to the first FAANG company to fold.

[1] https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/...


They're still a dominant player in a 2 sided market. They still have traffic (within their site + ad network) and buyers (people wanting to place ads). Even if we remove all user tracking and nuke all attribution they're still going to make a lot of money. It will shift to more national type ad campaigns and/or targeting based on page content.


> Netflix is probably going to the first FAANG company to fold

Why would Netflix go out of business? Are they overly burdened by debt?


Much stronger competition in the streaming space. Disney has better content for every family with kids, so they're first choice. Amazon already has people via Prime. How many more are you going to buy? Possibly one, small chance of two? You've got Netflix and all the others scrambling for that last space in the house.

Plus they don't seem to be able to make a hit show of the kind that gets subscriptions, just a lot of not too terrible content.


This is interesting. As a parent, we have Netflix, not Dinsey+. See, children love to re-do things over and over, same for tv, my children want to watch wreck it ralph and moana for 100 times.

So, buy one of those "disney classics" bundles and you are good for a long chunk of time. Netflix covers the adults.

That's my feeling at least, I don't like a single adult show from disney.


Without the momentum of subscribers who just haven't bothered to unsubscribe, I suspect they'd already be dead. Like, if they had to acquire those same users fresh, today, I don't think they could.


Sure, but I do not see why that would cause bankruptcy. Their market cap would shrink, but unless they are over leveraged, they should be able to continue operating without “folding”.


It's not necessarily the case that the company goes bankrupt, it just sort of goes sideways forever. At some point someone will get the brilliant plan of borrowing in order to invest in relaunching the company.




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