Cursor has $4 billion annual revenue rate so $60b is 15 years of future cashflows.
That's not crazy because if past predicts the future, that revenue will grow quickly. At $8 billion/year it's just 7.5 years, which is a reasonable investment.
This is a linear regression relying on a couple years of data to predict 15 years in the future and I don't believe that the valuation is made on this basis.
It may be that spaceX is buying an operation that would realistically take 5 months and 100 million to copy in-house for 60B because the worry is that waiting 5 months might cost that much in some sort of lost opportunity. It also might be that in any negotiation SpaceX is viewed as incredibly cash-rich and so anything can be sold to them for inflated prices.
I really don't understand these companies valuations it seems like boardrooms everywhere are in a constant state of panic that they'll lose it all if they aren't growing a breakneck pace constantly.
Many made the same prediction about Twitter, and it seems to be more or less the same or higher activity than before, and Bluesky is continuing to rapidly decline (-5% DAUs per quarter).
I wouldn't bet on Musk, but I DEFINITELY wouldn't bet against him. Anyone betting against him over the last 10 years has been viciously smoked (many short-selling hedge funds got wiped out completely).
> I wouldn't bet on Musk, but I DEFINITELY wouldn't bet against him. Anyone betting against him over the last 10 years has been viciously smoked (many short-selling hedge funds got wiped out completely).
In terms of the stock market, definitely. Honestly though, all those people who said self-driving wouldn't be solved by now, that Tesla didn't have a great moat and that the Boring Company was profoundly stupid were in fact correct.
> Many made the same prediction about Twitter, and it seems to be more or less the same or higher activity than before
Where are you getting that? There's not a single piece of data out there that will tell you Twitter has increased in users. Not only have they visibly dropped in users, but it's becoming increasingly clear the site is Astroturfed with bots.
The choice is not Twitter or Bluesky. Most people moved on to TikTok. I don't know a single person who uses Twitter.
Why would that be germane to the discussion? Are you under the impression people are hardwired to use specific kinds of social media?
The thread is about Twitter supposedly *growing* in size recently, and its only evidence was Bluesky's userbase. That's just silly. I know half a dozen people who left Twitter for TikTok. They don't care about the slight differences in these platforms, they are all algorithmically driven platforms where people comment under text and video. They care more about what audience is cultivated and what is forced on them.
> Many made the same prediction about Twitter, and it seems to be more or less the same or higher activity than before, and Bluesky is continuing to rapidly decline
Twitter did lose significant revenues. It came ahead on profit because it aggressively cut costs which is an interesting thing to do for Musk given SpaceX. Maybe he learned that profitability is over-rated?
I looked the other day, the feed got the same 4 postings reposted 3-5 times. A dozen posts talking about people getting banned, doxed and fired for talking about you know what.
I found 1-2 sort of interesting posts but not interesting enough to make it worth it.
It was fun for a while blogging with grok back when it was free.
Kind of interesting that engagement is zero on all of my postings. Not that I care for it but it shows quality isn't measured by users. The system prefer people read about users getting banned and that same video again and again. lol
With rss I just sort by date and eliminate duplicates. Not very hard and dramatically more interesting.
That revenue number is almost meaningless, since they give out tokens at a loss. Especially with Composer 2.5 tokens are sold at a steep loss. They could certainly grow to $8 billion/year, with this negative revenue / heavily subsidized subs, but what will happen if Cursor decide to be profitable, or maybe to even just break even?
It's a crazy number especially since Cursor feels kinda dead. Few thoughts from the other side:
- xAI needs the coding related data to compete with Claude Code and Codex
- Recent progress with Composer 2.5 seems promising given the size
- The may get a comeback on the smaller than Enterprise battle field now that the other two got so expensive
- The way that Elon set up this entire process was quite genius. They locked in this option before, and now after the gains through the IPO, it feels almost like a discount, lol
I could see it being a talent / first mover acquisition. I’m bullish on harnesses, but I think there’s still a very long road to get to something that is stable and relatively optimal - harness user experience is pretty trash tier right now imo.
My hot take is that it will probably be like the OS landscape:
- Some established enterprise option (Windows)
- Quality secondary option for professionals (OS X)
- Super users / nerds / tinkerers (Unix flavors)
I wonder what happens to fireworks ai, who provided the infra to train and serve composer 2, cursor was their largest customer, and they're probably loosing it.
Cursor is an extension for VS Code, a harness and a bunch of prompts.
They have their own model (Composer 2) which is based Kimi K2.5, but I don't think SpaceX would be interested in it.
If they need a harness for grok, they could fork PI.
What are they after for here? Customer base? Talent?