> Apple might feel that Intel’s process needs to mature before it can deliver 300M units.
We don't have to wonder about that at all. Apple will either use Samsung's 14nm or TSMC's 16nm (or both) for its chips next year.
It's funny that Intel keeps bragging about its process advantage, yet even with that process advantage they have no real advantage over the 28nm planar ARM chips in terms of performance/power consumption (sorry, Anand, it seems the "x86 myth" hasn't been "busted" after all. Otherwise Atom on 22nm FinFET should've wiped the floor with any 28nm planar ARM chip. But it doesn't. Not even close. In fact many current high-end ARM chips on older process beat Atom on the newer process).
Instead they have to beg tablet makers to take their chips away for free (or they pay them to take the chips).
Also, Intel's actions speak volumes. They've started licensing out their Atom micro-architecture to Rockchip and Spreadtrum. Think about what that means for a second - it means Intel thinks it can't succeed in the mobile market making its own chips. Instead it has to give their designs out as IP, just like ARM, so other companies make Atom chips. Even if Intel is "successful" with this strategy, they'll be making pennies on the dollar in mobile, just like ARM Holdings does (ARM is totally fine with that, given the company structure - I doubt Intel would be).
Oh - and those companies aren't going to use Intel's "huge process advantage" either. They're going to use TSMC's 28nm planar process - late next year. If Intel is doing this then Intel must think that having others make Atom chips on an obsolete 28nm process (while ARM chip makers move to 20nm and 14nm FinFet next year), is going to be "more successful" than themselves making them with that "huge process advantage". Let that hopeless Intel strategy sink in for a moment.
While I personally am confused about this part of Intel's strategy, I can't avoid the feeling that Intel (and Rockchip) know something I don't.
Maybe it's some kind of "white-label" conspiracy - Intel wanting to sell Atoms cheaply through a 3rd party so they don't need to dilute the Intel brand (and Wall-Street observed profit margin).
Maybe they are planning subsidies for the next 20 years (Intel was always playing the long game), and this is their way to avoid anti-trust, which would surely hit if they are actually successful.
They are at a huge disadvantage in the market, and they seem to have no technical advantage in mobile and tablets so far. But this does not seem like a desperate strategy - it seems the goal is different than "sell more now". It might just be red queen style "keep running in order to stay in place until we can figure out something else".
HP RISC cpus are gone. Alpha AXP is gone. AMD is mostly playing catch-up. IBM Power cpus are sort-of alive, but it is not an Intel competitor at this point. I hope Intel's dominance wanes and competition arrives again - but I'm not holding my breath.
Making ARM chips for low/medium end tablets is a cut throat market. Rockchip did well initially but now Allwinner has passed them, and they seem to be in a challenging situation. Just look at Allwinner vs. Rockchip growth. Not to mention Mediatek that will eventually come with integrated cellular (including 4G). So for Rockchip, it may simply be a defensive move: life is too hard and competitive on the ARM side, so try to find a niche in the x86 side. I'm very doubtful it'll work out: the volume is in the low/mid tiers, and the average consumer doesn't care about the CPU architecture. It's just a basic Android tablet, period. I don't see a worthwhile differentiation on Intel side, except the current crazy subsidies but those can't last forever. And this market is not faithful: the chip makers need to provide mostly everything to the ODMs (Mediatek is quite famous there, providing even the production and test process and tooling ready to deploy), and this makes changing chip provider rather easy. There is no loyalty, only a focus on low prices.
We don't have to wonder about that at all. Apple will either use Samsung's 14nm or TSMC's 16nm (or both) for its chips next year.
It's funny that Intel keeps bragging about its process advantage, yet even with that process advantage they have no real advantage over the 28nm planar ARM chips in terms of performance/power consumption (sorry, Anand, it seems the "x86 myth" hasn't been "busted" after all. Otherwise Atom on 22nm FinFET should've wiped the floor with any 28nm planar ARM chip. But it doesn't. Not even close. In fact many current high-end ARM chips on older process beat Atom on the newer process).
Instead they have to beg tablet makers to take their chips away for free (or they pay them to take the chips).
Also, Intel's actions speak volumes. They've started licensing out their Atom micro-architecture to Rockchip and Spreadtrum. Think about what that means for a second - it means Intel thinks it can't succeed in the mobile market making its own chips. Instead it has to give their designs out as IP, just like ARM, so other companies make Atom chips. Even if Intel is "successful" with this strategy, they'll be making pennies on the dollar in mobile, just like ARM Holdings does (ARM is totally fine with that, given the company structure - I doubt Intel would be).
Oh - and those companies aren't going to use Intel's "huge process advantage" either. They're going to use TSMC's 28nm planar process - late next year. If Intel is doing this then Intel must think that having others make Atom chips on an obsolete 28nm process (while ARM chip makers move to 20nm and 14nm FinFet next year), is going to be "more successful" than themselves making them with that "huge process advantage". Let that hopeless Intel strategy sink in for a moment.