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In that scenario, could one claim that "one's name being Elwood means one is more likely to BE a farmer"?


Yup, you got it right. The wording is important.

Apparently, if your name is Elwood you're more likely to be a farmer today. But that obviously doesn't mean that kids named Elwood are more likely to become farmers (it could, but I'm afraid you're gonna have to proof that).

Wikipedia has some simple examples: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_cau...


In this case, it probably means that people named Elwood are more likely to (a) be older and (b) live in rural areas, both of which are correlated with being a farmer.




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